Monday 30 November 2015

OHL Realignment

The last time the OHL realigned their Divisions was just prior to the 2002-03 season when North Bay moved to Saginaw which led to a chain reaction of the Spirit moving from the Central to the West. London moving from the West to the Midwest and Brampton moving from the Midwest to the Central. 

Since that season we have had 5 teams move. Some over great distances while others stayed within 50 KMs of their previous home. The Icedogs moved to Niagara, the Majors moved to Mississauga and eventually became the Steelheads. The Battalion brought OHL hockey back to North Bay while this past season the Whalers moved to Flint and became the Firebirds while the Belleville Bulls moved to Hamilton to become the Bulldogs.

You could argue all of these teams are in the correct division with the exception of the Bulldogs. With the current set up the way it is though there doesnt seem to be an easy fix. That's why it is in the OHLs best interest to scrap Conferences and go with 5 divisions of 4. From a distance perspective it is much easier to group teams in 4 rather than 5. This is especially true with the East and depending on how you align the teams the West and the North.

With no all star game in the OHL is there really any reason to have conferences? The obvious reason is for playoffs as you want to use it to seed teams. What is wrong with seeding teams 1-16 like they do in the QMJHL. Some want to keep the distance between playoff rivals to a minimum but with teams like Sault Ste Marie and Erie facing each other the last two years ( 969 km distance) and Niagara and Ottawa seemingly facing each other every other year ( 560 km distance) the conference set up as it is still has its fair share of travel.

Before we look into potentially newly aligned divisions lets look at the current set up.

East Division


In the chart above you can see the distance in KMs from arena to arena for each team. What stands out the most is the average distance that the 67's are from each team in there division at 342.25kms. This is the second largest average distance for any team in the O and while not totally unavoidable due to the fact that they are the most easterly team in the league it is a number that has jumped 60kms due to the extra 240km distance between Belleville and Hamilton. All teams in this division suffer but especially Hamilton as to travel to all divisional road games they must go through Toronto which only adds time due to traffic.

Central Division


Another Division that has seen its share of movement since the last realignment with 3 teams moving (although 1 just really took an old teams arena). Mississauga has gone from 2 rivals within 50 kms to two over 400kms away. Lets face it having Niagara one of the most southerly teams in the OHL in the same division as 2 of the most northerly in Sudbury and North Bay doesnt really make much sense.

Midwest Division

This division is the only one that has had zero movement since the last realignment. It has also developed some really strong rivalries. On top of that every team in this division has won the conference title since the last realignment. However 2 teams have moved significantly closer to Erie then any of its current divisional rivals with Niagara and Hamilton now located where they are. This brings up the question what is more important for divisions Distance or Rivalries? You could argue new rivalries can be made and old rivalries can be maintained but is it the preferred option?

West Division


What sticks out with the West division is that Sault Ste Marie has on average 500kms between division rivals. While Ottawa is in the extreme East and faces distance hurdles from that it is nothing compared to the Greyhounds who in the North West are pretty much in the middle of nowhere. What compounds things is the Great lakes which doesn't always allow for efficient travel. The recent move of Plymouth to Flint hasnt really changed anything in this division as they stay fairly close to rivals Saginaw, Sarnia and Windsor.


Realignment Option 1

I have broken realignment into 2 options both with pro's and con's and since we have gone over what the divisions are like in their current format we can move onto what is potentially out there for the OHL to chose from.

East Division



In a 4 team division format this is the easiest one to pick. Ottawa, Kingston and Peterborough are locked together and the only logical choice to add is Oshawa. The only other possible option woud be to add North Bay but you want to keep them with Sudbury and that takes away the Pete's closest geographic rival. Compared to the 5 team division Ottawa shaves off a little more than 50kms while Kingston loses close to 30kms while the Pete's are about the same and Oshawa adds a few more.

South Division


The newly constructed South division contains teams from 3 different current divisions. With Erie coming from the Midwest, Hamilton from the East and Mississauga and Niagara from the Central. While currently in different conferences the Icedogs and Otters already play more than twice a year. The biggest benificiary of this would be the Bulldogs who move from the East to having 2 teams less than 60km from their rink. While their farthest rival would still be less than a 2 hour drive. Much better then their current 5+ hour drive to Ottawa. This projected set up drops Erie's average distance down by 70kms. It drops Hamilton and Niagara's down by over 200kms while Mississauga shaves over 150kms. Geographically this makes sense and even though these teams come from 3 difference current divisions it is not all that far fetched that rivals can be easily created.

North Division


While the first 2 divisions kind of fell together the last 3 are a little trickier as their always seems to be one team that gets a raw deal. In this scenario that team Owen Sound who add nearly 100kms to their total. While Barrie adds 20kms Owen Sound is a closer geographic rival than Niagara. Their jump though is more attributed to losing Mississauga who they are closest too. North Bay and Sudbury though shave about 50kms apiece in this option. When you have 2 teams so far away up in Northern Ontario it isn't always easy finding divisional foes without making things difficult for other teams.

Midwest Division


While Owen Sound got the short end of the stick with the North Division you could say Windsor gets it by being moved to the Midwest. Windsor actually has a lower average distance in this scenario than in their current set up although that is horribly skewed due to a 573km distance from Sault Ste Marie. London benefits from less travel as Windsor is closer than both Erie and Owen Sound but Kitchener and Guelph add a few more clicks to the odometer in this 401 division.

West Division


Flint, Saginaw and Sarnia all lose closer rival Windsor while keeping divisional rival Sault Ste Marie. The Soo is in a difficult spot as they are a 3 hours drive from their closest rival (Sudbury) but Saginaw and Flint and their 2nd and 4th closest respectively. To further complicate things it is a better drive to those two teams due to a divided highway rather than the 2 lane highway 17 between Sault Ste Marie and Sudbury.

Realignment Option 2

East Division

Same as in Option 1. A no brainier as there really isnt another option out there to stick with these teams.

South Division


Once again a no brainer as this division has the least amount of travel as any.

North Division


In this incarnation of the North Division we have Sault Ste Marie swapped out for Owen Sound. This works out for the Attack but not so much for Barrie and Sault Ste Marie. The Wolves and Battalion more or less swap spots in terms of distance but the Hounds are a more natural rival than the Attack. The Greyhounds lose current rivals Sarnia, Saginaw and Flint and gain a 599km trip to Barrie. The Colts on the other hand lose Owen Sound and gain the long trip up to the Soo.

Midwest Divsion


 Owen Sound Stays in the Midwest in this scenario and I am sure they wont complain about that. On average they are 120kms closer then in option number 1. Kitchener and Guelph join Niagara and Hamilton as teams with less than 100kms of travel on average between divisional foes and London loses Windsor for Owen Sound which isnt too much of a loss for them.

West Division


This is likely the preferred option for these 4 teams. All 4 teams keep their average distance below 150 kms. These 4 have been divisional rivals since the last realignment so they have had plenty of time to develop a history and in this scenario they get to keep it.



Final Verdict

While part of me prefers option number 1 for a few reasons the only option to chose when comparing these two options is the superior choice. Number 2 obviously hurts Sault Ste Marie and Barrie but it is hard to go with Option 1 at the expense of 8 other teams who come off much better with the 2nd option. The West Division and Midwest shave so much distance off that it is hard to justify option 1.

Schedule
There are plenty of options to go with the schedule in this scenario. One would be 8 games vs division rivals (24 games) with 48 to split between the remaining 16. You could go with 3 vs each of the remaining 16 alternating years in which team X and team Y host each other twice in a season. It also leaves open the option of playing certain rivals more than others. Currently that already takes plays with teams like Sault Ste. Marie/Sudbury and Niagara/Erie. While some will complain that causes a more unbalanced schedule it should be pointed out that it is something we already deal with.

Potential 5 team Division Realignment
I wont touch on this much but here is one possibility
East: Ottawa, Kingston, Peterborough, North Bay, Sudbury
Central: Oshawa, Mississauga, Hamilton, Barrie, Niagara
Midwest: Same
West: Same

So which option would you prefer? Would you like the status quo? Is there an option that you have that I didnt post? I would love to hear what others think when it comes to Divisional Realignment.

Friday 27 November 2015

OHL Transaction Roundup

After a slow week last week another 8 suspensions were handed out this week. The league continues to crack down on slewfoots as another 3 match penalties were called in the last weekend of play. On the trade front we had a pair of contenders make minor moves adjust their depth charts and a couple of bottom feeders match up in another minor move.


Suspensions

Flint - Connor Sills - Slewfoot - Auto 2 games

Windsor - Logan Brown - Slewfoot - Auto 2 games

Sarnia - Troy Lajeunesse - Slewfoot - Auto 2 games

A trio of forwards got nailed with slewfooting majors this past week. Logan Brown is obviously the biggest name of the group as it is the potential NHL 1st round picks 2nd suspension of the season. Connor Sills has already served his suspension as the OA committed his infraction on Friday which was the first of a 3 in 3 for Flint.

Kingston - Conor Mcglynn - Headcheck - 8 games

Not very often can you escape a 10+ game suspension for a head check but McGlynn is the 2nd in 3 weeks (Josh Wesley) to avoid double digits. Still missing 8 games of the veteran forwards services will be a blow to the Fronts

Sarnia - Noah Bushnell - Leaving the Bench - 2 games

Sarnia - Darian Hatcher - Player leaving his bench - 2 games

Noah Bushnell is lucky in my opinion to get away with only 2 games. In a league that is trying as hard as the OHL to crack down on fighting leaving the bench is considered very serious by some. His one saving grace was that an instigator was taken on him. Darian Hatcher though gets slapped with an auto 2 games for having a player leave the bench to join an altercation.

Niagara - Ryan Mantha - 3rd man in a fight - Auto 2 games

Mantha gets slapped with 2 games for being the 3rd man in a fight. While a blow to the Icedogs it gives them a chance to give 1st round pick Hayden Davis some more icetime.

Windsor - Cristiano Digiacinto - Game Misconduct Aggressor Instigating - 5 Games

DiGiacinto has always played with an edge. Before he signed with the Spits and was playing with the Hamilton Red Wings in the OJHL I believe he was suspended for half of his time with the team while on a goal a game pace when in the lineup. It is a style that has obviously gotten him far but he needs to better harness his emotions as he is a key piece in the Spitfires puzzle.


Waiver Claims

Guelph Storm

Brendan Burke from WHL


Trades

Guelph Storm

Brendan Burke

to

London Knights

6th round pick 2016

Breakdown

The London Knights address their backup goalie questions by sending a mid round pick to Guelph for a waiver pick up that would have never reached them. While Guelph has an OA goalie of their own that they are trying to move by claiming Burke and trading him to London (a team that would have no interest in Nichols) the Storm blocked the Sting from putting in a claim. Burke is exactly what the Sting are looking for but by claiming him the Storm keep them as a possibility for Nichols which is a must with so few buyers in the goalie market.


Niagara

Mikkel Aagaard
Zach Wilkie

to

Sudbury

Pavel Janys

Breakdown
The Icedogs open up some options and help themselves with a more efficient roster construction by dealing import and OA forward Mikkel Aagaard for 19 year old import Pavel Janys. While I liked what Aagaard brought to the Icedogs I feel that Janys is more talented import and it allows the Icedogs to use an OA spot to help fill another hole in their roster. While some have surmised that it could open the door to some goalie help I feel that if they are serious about making a run in a wide open East that help down the middle would be a better use of the newly open OA spot. For Sudbury they are still rebuilding and while they have some intriguing pieces there are still plenty of holes and they were able to add a solid 18 year old defender to their team.

Sudbury

Jacob Harris

to

Guelph

8th round pick 2018

Breakdown
After acquiring Mikkel Aagaard from Niagara the Wolves move OA Jacob Harris to last place Guelph. Harris will be a much needed veteran presence on the Storm as he should help shield the younger players from the mental and physical beating the lowly Storm have awaiting them over the final 4 months of the season. For the low cost of an 8th round pick the qualitative value that Harris brings to the Storm is too good to pass up.

Friday 20 November 2015

OHL Weekly Transaction Review

After a busy week last week for my first instalment of a weekly transaction review post with 5 suspensions and 5 trades we only had 2 and 1 this week respectively. I expect next week to be busier with the amount of chatter out there as some contending teams want to make moves before players leave for world junior camps and the Christmas roster freeze.

Suspensions

Max Jones - 2 Games (Auto): 2 fights in the same game. November 13th vs Guelph. served final game of the suspension was last night vs Oshawa.

Jake Henderson - 10 Games: head check on Vanya Lodnia vs Erie. Brings the total of 10 or greater suspensions this regular season to 4 as he joins Keigan Goetz (12 head check), Brendan Lemieux ( 10 head check) and Josh Burnside (12).

Trades

Owen Sound

Connor Walters

to

Hamilton
5th '19
8th '16

Breakdown

The Bulldogs add a 10th rearguard to their rosters 9 of which are '97 or later birthdates. This means there are likely to be more moves in the future as there is only so much ice time to go around. Walters is an upgrade though and should see regular ice time for the Bulldogs. For the Attack you would want a better return on a past 3rd round draft pick but you have to remember his draft position is a sunk cost and with their depth and his inconsistent playing time this was the best use of the asset for them.

Tuesday 17 November 2015

OHL Goalie Trade Market

With the acquisition of Michael Giugovez and the proclamation that Justin Nichols had played his last game with the Guelph Storm Mike Kelly got the OHL Goalie market going. The trade market for goalies is always a tricky thing. At the end of the day there is only 20 starting spots available and only 20 backup spots. This ultimately squeezes the demand side of the supply demand curve and there always tends to be a team out of contention with a veteran goalie available.


When there is an increase in supply the supply curve shifts left thus lowering the equilibrium point and prices drop. In order for teams to get a higher return they either need supply to shift to the right (less available) or demand to shift to the right (more teams looking for goalies). This year there seems to be the opposite of both those things.


What further complicates the goalie trade market is that isn't always an efficient use of an OA slot to use it on a goalie if you are a contending team. Only 3 teams have won an OHL championship in the last 3 years with an OA goalie (OTT 01, KIT 03, WSR 09. Thank you Jim Parcels for the info) as you tend to get more value out of skaters as you will be an OA short when your backup is in the net. Also if a team already has 3 OA spots taken it adds another layer of complication to any potential trade. Last season there were those in the media who claimed Saginaw would get a boatload of picks for Paterson. At the end of the day a limited market which was shrunken further by his OA status had him land in Kitchener for only a 2nd and a 3rd.

Currently the market for teams in need of goalies is a little murky. There are a few teams who may be looking at upgrades and I will go into more detail in that regard later on in the post. For now I'll have a look at goalies who could be trade targets.




The Overagers

Justin Nichols

Already said to be on the market and has played his final game for the Guelph Storm. The frustration has been boiling for a while on a very weak Guelph team. A spearing penalty one night and a couple of days later a goalie fight that led to a 5 game suspension. It isnt the first time Just in Nichols has had questions about his emotions as he tried to goad Soo Greyhounds goalie Brandon Halverson into a fight in the 2nd round of the playoffs last year as the Hounds were finishing off an extremely overmatched Storm team.

While he may have questions about his emotions there is no denying that Nichols has been a solid goalie. He has a .914 sv% this year on a god awful Guelph team. Has an OHL championship under his belt and has played more than 9500 minutes of OHL hockey (regular season and playoffs) in his career.

He would be an upgrade to a number of teams but will that upgrade be quantifibly large enough to justify the potential cost that Guelph is looking for in return?

Charlie Graham

Another vet who is entering his 5th year on the OHL. Backed up Malcom Subban in 12-13 before taking over the starting job the next season. Had a very solid .914 sv% last year and was the main reason Belleville was able to squeak into the playoffs as the 8th seed in the East. While his numbers arent as great this year he has been Hamiltons best player on many nights.

The biggest obstacle in my opinion to Graham moving is that with this being the first year in Hamilton the power brokers of the franchise may feel added pressure to make the playoffs even if they will be nothing more than road apples to a higher seeds march to the conference championship. With the plethora of goalies available with that shirk the possible return down to the point where keeping him is the only logical option?

Jake Smith

In my opinion the top OA goalie that could be available on the market. While he has only had 1 regular season in which his SV% was greater than .900 he has always been money in the playoffs. Kept and overmatched North Bay Battalion team in it vs Guelph in the 2014 finals and was stellar in pushing Oshawa to 6 games last season. A career .916 SV% in 39 OHL playoff games.

The Battalion currently sit 7th in the East with a 5 point lead on Hamilton who is in 8th and a 9 point lead on 10th place Sudbury. The have 2 very attractive pieces in Smith and Amadio and with only 2 2nd round picks coming up in the next 5 years you would have to think that Stan Butler may be motivated to move some pieces.

The NHL Draft Picks

Brandon Halverson

Halverson is coming off of a 40-7 season where he helped lead the Hounds to the Western Conference championship. Surprised many by claiming the backup job for Team USA at the World Juniors last year and is considered by many to be the preeminent puck handling goalie in the OHL.

This season though hasn't been the greatest for Halverson as he injured his ankle in training camp and missed the first few weeks of the season because of it. He hasn't been as sharp as last year since he has come back and it seems as though his confidence is waning. There is still talent there and he is an attractive option to a team who believes in his talent. He has been signed by the New York Rangers.

Alex Nedeljkovic

Has put up stellar numbers every season he has been in the league. The last 2 years he has helped carry 2 very weak Plymouth Whaler teams. As a 16 year old in 2013 he helped the Whalers advance to the OHL Conference finals.

A signed draft pick of the Carolina Hurricanes after being selected 37th overall in the 2014 NHL draft. With out a doubt in the conversation for the top goalie in the league and firmly entrenched in the top 3 he will be the target for any contender who feels they need a major upgrade between the pipes.

The Waiver Option

Brendan Burke

Recently put on Waivers by the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL after a trade was unable to be worked out. If he clears WHL waivers then he is open to joining an OHL team if he so desires. Currently has a 1.97 GAA and a .931 SV% in 7 games this season.

Already this season 1 WHL OA has made waives in the OHL as Garret Hughson has taken the reins in Windsor and has been absolutely stellar for the Spits. Burke would be a great option for a team looking to upgrade their goalie situation without subtracting an asset.

At the end of the day I dont see him getting past WHL waivers but if he did boy would that muddly an already crowded market.

The Insurance Policies

Mathew Mancina

Was Stellar 1B option in Guelph their championship year (even winning the CHL goalie of the week award) before Justin Nichols took over shortly after Christmas. Eventually traded to Peterborough where he has been a solid OHL starter. While I don't think he would be targeted by a contender to carry the load he could be an affordable insurance policy for a team to carry as a backup.

Troy Timpano

Has had a tough go on some really bad Sudbury teams. You have to wonder if he would thrive on a better team similar to Frankie Palazzese who shined after leaving Kingston. With the recently acquired Bowman and U17 goalie Jake McGrath as options for next year you would have to think that someone is going to be moved.

Justin Fazio

Justin has been solid this year but his name has been popping up recently from reliable OHL sources like Josh Brown. The only way this makes sense is if Sarnia adds a better goalie. They are in a tough spot in terms of the Jr hockey build cycle. A year or two away from being really dangerous but will Chychrun be around even for next year?


These are all goalies that could plausible be moved with some of them most likely moving. While we now have the supply side of the curve figured out what about the demand side? Most fans dream of what their players can get in a trade but they tend to forget that a team must be willing to pay the price and when a team has options it tends to drive the price down and that is a situation I think we will see as there aren't many teams shopping.

Niagara

If Niagara goes for it (and in spite of recent comments from Marty Williamson I feel they will go for it) they will almost certainly move on from the Brent Moran experiment. Loaded with potential he has never been able to put it all together as they traded for an OA goalie last year and will most likely make a move this year. The play of 17 year old Stephen Dhillon has bought them some time as he has moved from backup to 1B to 1A between the pipes at the Meridian Centre.

The Icedogs currently have 3 OA skaters on their roster so you can count them out for an OA goalie. That leaves us with Halverson and Nedeljkovic as the most likely options. With Dhillon being 17 you would rather target a 19 year old rather than ride the youngster if you are making a serious push.

Sarnia

The Sting seem to be in the market for an upgrade over Fazio and with 2 open OA spots on their team after trading Nikadorov this week you would have to think they will target an OA goalie. The Nichols suspension complicates things as you would have to keep Fazio around or wait till the suspension is over to pull the trigger and find a trading partner for Fazio. Another option is to overpay for Graham or Smith. The more games you have with the goalie the greater the value on your return is.

Barrie

They will need an insurance policy. With Blackwood entrenched as the starter and rightfully so you can count them out for an OA or for one of the big 19 year olds. Mancina or Timpano could make sense here. The bonus with Timpano is you would have a starter set up for next season.

Ottawa 67's

I have heard their name as a team who could upgrade but are they really looking for that if Konechny is being shopped? On top of that with the play of Lazarev how much of an upgrade is really up there and it would be hard to justify the cost with such a tiny improvement.

Windsor Spitfires

They recently got rid of some goalies and with the play of Hughson and start '99 Dipietro backing him up there is no room in their crowded crease for any upgrade

London Knights

Vella may be the goalie of the future but Parsons could use a better insurance policy. London has never been shy to go out and acquire a top notch goalie so you would have to wonder if they would make a play for Halverson or Nedelkovic to split time with Parsons and keep him fresh for the playoffs. Ultimately I think they go in another direction but goaltending is an area I expect them to address.

Kitchener Rangers

The Rangers are in a good place between the pipes. Opilka is starting to get hot. Carty has been solid when healthy (a place he should be again soon) and 16 year old rookie Luke Richardson looked great in his first game and has been fantastic playing for the Jr B Dutchies. They should be comfortable using their plethora of trade assets to address other areas of the team.


At the end of the day I would be shocked if any goalie recieved a package that included more than 2 2nd round draft picks. The only scenario in which I see that occurring is if London entered the Nedeljkovic sweepstakes. The OA goalie market is too crowded and limited and contenders just wont spend that many assets on insurance policies. So far the real winners are the Owen Sound Attack and the Mississauga Steelheads. The Steelheads got Flinn for a 5th and an OA. Owen Sound got out of the market quickly and now have an asset in Bryson Cianfrone who can grab them a few more pieces if they chose to trade him at the deadline. If not they picked up a whole season of value from him. It will be interesting to see which team will be left with a goalie that they wanted to trade.


Friday 13 November 2015

OHL Transaction Round Up

Busy week in the "O" was there were 7 suspensions from last weekends play handed out by the league offices as well as 5 trades and 1 retirement. Teams are starting to get an idea of where they fit in the junior hockey cycle and are starting to work their roster accordingly as we slowly creep up to the January trade deadline.


Suspensions

SBY -Matt Schmalz - 2 Games - Abuse of Official

FLI - Josh Wesley - 4 Games - Head Check

Gue - Givani Smith - 2 Games - Auto Suspension 2nd fight in same stoppage

Wsr - Logan Stanley 2 Games - Auto Suspension 2nd fight in same stoppage

Gue - Justin Nichols - 5 Games - Left Crease to fight

Wsr - Michael Giugovez - 5 Games - Left Crease to fight

Ptb - Cameron Lizotte - 3 games - Kneeing

Trades

Hamilton
Jake Bricknell

to 

Guelph
Barries 8th rd pick '17, Guelphs 5th rd pick '19

Breakdown

Bricknell is a former 2nd round pick by and while he is on his way to a career year he still has failed to produce at the level you would hope for someone taken in his position. Guelph gets good value for him as he has the rest of his 18 and 19 year old seasons with the potential to be an OA candidate. The Storm are one of the younger teams in the league so Bricknell's 100+ games of expierience will be a boost in what is becoming a long rebuilding season. Hamilton picks up a pair of mid round picks that they will stash away and give them options down the road.

Kitchener

Mike Davies

to

Saginaw

Saginaw 2nd and 5th rd picks '18, Con 5th 2019

Breakdown

Kitchener adds their 3rd 2nd in '18 and 8th over the next 4 drafts. For a team that is now ranked #1 in the CHL this is another asset that they can use at the trade deadline to take a shot at an OHL championship. Saginaw gets a former 1st round draft pick who has gotten lost in the shuffle with the depth in Kitchener. A very reasonable price for someone who could use a change of scenery as they are getting more than 1.5 years of value out of him + a potential OA season.

Windsor

Michael Giugovez

to

Guelph

Guelphs 10th '16

Breakdown

Opens the door for a Justin Nichols trade which makes sense for Guelph as it is a buyers market with as many as 6 goalies available so getting a head start before the market collapses ensures they get something for an asset that they dont need. They are last with him and they can finish last without him. As for Windsor Giugovez cost them a 7th so they were able to recoup some of that value for a goalie that clearly had no place with 4 goalies on the roster.

Windsor 

Daniil Verty
Saginaws 10th '16

to 

North Bay
Windsor 4th '17
North Bays 6th '16

Breakdown
Russian born winger who played in the GTHL to gain eligibility in the OHL priority selection. He is a '98 so the Battalion get good value for the 17 year old who picked up 9 points in his rookie year last year. Verty will have a chance at more ice time on the Battalion who are going through a bit of a retool.

Sarnia

Daniel Nikadorov

to 

Peterborough

SSM 3rd '17, Ham 5th '17

Breakdown

Great pick up by the Petes as Nikadorov will join Betzold and Garlent as the teams OAs. A strong 2 way forward should fit in nicely and take pressure of the young stars on the Pete's. Curious move by the Sting as they already had an OA spot open. There is speculation that they will be the landing spot for Guelph goalie Justin Nichols but you have to wonder if they have another OA in their sights.

Retirements

North Bay

Zach Bratina

Concussions have ended the career of Zach Bratina who in his 19 year old season is starting to turn into the player that you expected when Plymouth took him in the 1st round back in 2012. Currently sits tied for 3rd in league goals with 12. You must applaud the young man for what can not be an easy decision. Nothing is more important than your health and you hope for nothing but the best for this young man in the future.

Monday 9 November 2015

Analyzing Team Draft Pick Caches

As well all know draft picks are the new currency used to acquire players as teams gear up at the OHL trade deadline. Fans would love their teams to pick up players instead of picks but at the end of the day it doesnt always make sense for contending teams to unload to many bodies and draft picks dont have no trade clauses and you dont have to yank them out of school.

Last season alone from December 30th to the trade deadline on January 9th there were 27 2nd round draft picks (+ 2 conditional) 13 3rd round draft picks (plus 3 conditional) and 8 4th round draft picks (plus 3 conditional) traded. These picks were used by teams in various stages of compete from Contenders like Erie, Oshawa and Sault Ste Marie to Sudbury and Peterborough who both traded and traded for high draft picks.

The big question would be "Is there any value in having multiple draft picks?" and the answer is yes and no. Without going into too much detail you can get the law of diminished returns if you have too many 2nds or 3rds in a short period of time. The main reason being is that there is a finite amount of ice time to go around. Spread out over a period of time can be advantagous however as you can inturn use it to go on a run yourself. London has been very good at this as they have loaded up when they have felt they had a chance and stockpiled picks while rebuilding on the fly.

Lets have a look at what some teams have.

Most 2nds over the next 5 seasons

Peterborough 10 Seem to always be near the top as the Pete's are in a perpetual rebuild but they do a good job of flipping 2nds for extra picks when teams are short for upcoming drafts

Guelph 9 Even after unloading a ton of picks to get Kerby Rychel they have done a great job of restocking the cupboard as they enter a full rebuild

Owen Sound 8 When you have a 1st round pick as good as Victor Mete not report this is the bonus. On top of the extra 1st playing for them this year they have a nice cache of picks to help build around their solid foundation

Kitchener 7 When a team with one of the best records also boasts some of the most 2nd round draft picks you know teams will be hard pressed to top them at the trade deadline

Flint 7 Another team who got a boost from a 1st that didnt commit. The downside though is that with all the recent turmoil who will commit?

Least Amount of 2nds over the next 5 seasons

Sault Ste Marie 0 The cost of making a run was all their 2nds. To compound things is that Jared McCann has made the Canucks thus giving them 1 less tradible asset to restock.

Erie 1 Another team that loaded up last season. An interesting case still as they are one of the top teams in the Midwest but do they have the assets to compete at the deadline?

North Bay 2 Eastern Conference finalists last year will most likely be restocking the cupboards at the trade deadline as they slide back to the middle of the conference.

Barrie 3 limited 2nds but they do get a compensentory 1st next year for Jake Tortora not coming to training camp. Also if he reports to the Kitchener Rangers they get 3 2nd round picks from 2020-22

Oshawa Generals 3 They may actually have 4 2nds as one of their picks sent to London was conditional and I couldnt find the conditions on it.


Most 3rd Round Picks

Flint 9

Least 3rd Round Picks

Mississauga 1

2nds By Division next 5 seasons (conditional picks not included)

East Division 26 2nds

Central Division 17 2nds

Midwest Division 30 2nds

West Division 23 2nds

OHL Draft pick Database

Updated draft pick database. Updated via the media notes section of the OHL website as well as what ever information I can find on conditional draft picks. Lost some data with the Kitchener Rangers picks and I will try to recoup and update that when I have a chance. Enjoy and feel free to ask any questions.

East Division

Hamilton Bulldogs

2016 LDN 2nd 3rd Eri 4th Con KIT 5th 6th SAG 6th BAR 7th SAG 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 ERI 3rd 3rd 4th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 13th 14th 15th



2018 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


2019 OS 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th


Kingston Frontnacs

2016 NB con 2nd 2nd 3rd SSM 5th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th SUD con 15th 14th 15th SSM con 15th
2017 FLI 2nd 3rd OSH 5th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


2018 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2019 2nd 4th SUD 5th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2021 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

Oshawa Generals

2016 SAG 2nd Sag 3rd SAG 4th 4th Kgn 5th 5th 7th 8th 9th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 Kgn 2nd KIT con 3rd OS con 7th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2018 Kgn 2nd 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2019 Kgn 3rd Con 4th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2020 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2021 Kgn 2nd con 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Ottawa 67's

2016 2nd BAR con 3rd 3rd BEL 4th 4th Fli 5th 5th 6th 7th 9th 10th 11th 13th 14th
2017 2nd OS 3rd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th

2018 OS 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Peterborough Petes

2016 BEL 2nd MIS 2nd KIT 2nd 3rd MISS 5th KGN 5th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th BAR 10th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 ERI 2nd 2nd SSM 3rd 4th BEL 5th 5th SAG 6th 6th 7th 8th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2018 2nd LDN con 3rd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th WSR 8th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2019 2nd SSM 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th



2020 WSR 2nd SSM 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


Central Division

Barrie Colts

2016 2nd Kit 3rd 4th 5th BEL 5th Miss 6th 6th 8th 9th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 9th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th WSR 15th

2018 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 2nd 3rd 4th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Mississauga Steelheads

2016 OSH 2nd WSR 6th KGN con 6th 7th KIT 9th SSM 9th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 4th KGN 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2018 2nd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 2nd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Niagara IceDogs

2016 WSR 3rd WSR con 4th Kit 4th 4th 5th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th PLY con 12th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2017 WSR 2nd 2nd SAG 3rd 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th WSR 14th 14th 15th



2018 Gue 2nd SAG con 2nd WSR 3rd 3rd 4th 5th Kit 6th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th




2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


North Bay Battalion

2016 3rd 5th 6th WSR 7th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 3rd KIT 4th WSR 4th 5th 6th KGN 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Sudbury Wolves

2016 WSR 2nd 4th WSR 5th 5th 6th BAR con 7th MISS 8th 8th 9th 10th 11th SAG 12th 12th 13th 15th
2017 MISS 3rd 3rd NB 4th Erie 4th 5th 6th 8th 9th 10th 11th BEL 12th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 ERI 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th ERI con 18th
2019 2nd ERI 3rd 3rd 4th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Midwest Division

Erie Otters

2016 LDN 2nd SBY 3rd SAR 3rd 3rd OSH 4th 6th 7th 8th SAG 9th 9th 10th OS 11th 11th LDN 12th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th





2018 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th






2019 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th




2020 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th




Guelph Storm

2016 PBO 2nd 3rd SAR 4th 5th 6th BEL 7th 7th 8th 9th SAR 10th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 BAR 2nd PBO 3rd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th WSR 10th 10th NB 11th 11th 12th 13th 14th
2018 BAR 2nd WSR 2nd BEL 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th OTT 8th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 WSR 2nd PBO 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th BAR 5th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 BAR 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

Kitchener Rangers

2016 SSM 2nd SAR 2nd OSH 3rd 6th 7th 8th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th




2017 2nd OSH 2nd OSH con 3rd 5th 6th 7th OTT 8th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 SSM 2nd OSH 2nd SSM con 3rd 3rd OSH con 4th 4th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
2020 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th






2021 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th






2022 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th






London Knights

2016 ERI 2nd 3rd ERI 3rd 4th PTB 4th NB con 5th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 13th 14th OTT 15th OSH 15th
2017 2nd Miss 2nd 3rd OTT con 4th 4th OS con 5th 5th WSR 7th SAR 7th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 Ott 2nd OSH 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th



2019 OSH con 2nd OS 3rd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Ott 15th con Ham 15th con
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th WSR 6th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


Owen Sound Attack

2016 ERI con 3rd 3rd 4th ERI 5th 5th OSH 6th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th FLI 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2017 MIS 2nd BEL 2nd 2nd 4th MISS 5th LDN con 6th OSH 6th 6th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 LDN 2nd ERI 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 LDN 2nd ERI 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th WSR 12th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

West Division

Flint Firebirds

2016 SBY 2nd 2nd Miss 3rd SAG 3rd 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 12th 13th 14th 15th




2017 SBY 2nd Con 3rd NIA 4th OSH 4th SBY 4th 4th 5th 6th SSM 7th Con 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 SBY 2nd 2nd Miss 3rd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2019 2nd OSH 3rd Miss 3rd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2020 OSH 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


Saginaw Spirit

2016 NIA 3rd PLY 3rd GUE 4th 5th WSR 8th 8th 11th 13th 14th 15th






2017 NB 2nd 2nd KIT 3rd NIA con 3rd 4th NIA con 6th 7th 8th PBO 9th 9th SAR 10th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 2nd KIT 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2019 2nd NB 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th NIA con 15th
2020 2nd 3rd NB 4th 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

Sarnia Sting

2016 NIA 2nd OS 2nd Miss 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th


2017 SSM 2nd WSR 3rd 3rd 4th SAG 5th 5th 6th 6th 8th 9th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 2nd 3rd SSM 4th 4th WSR 5th 5th 7th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 2nd 3rd 4th OSH 5th 5th 6th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2020 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds

2016 3rd OSH 4th 4th 6th 7th 8th 10th 11th OTT con 12th 12th 13th 14th
2017 4th NIA 5th 5th 6th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2018 SUD con 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2019 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
2020 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Windsor Spitfires

2016 GUE 2nd NIA con 6th 9th SAG 10th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th SSM con 15th



2017 GUE 2nd SAR 2nd KGN 4th 5th 6th 8th 9th 11th 12th 13th GUE con 15th



2018 NIA 2nd 4th 6th 7th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th



2019 NIA con 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 13th 14th 15th

2020 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

2021 2nd OSH 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th