Thursday 6 April 2017

Western Conference Round 2 preview: Erie Otters (1) vs London Knights (4)

Other Previews


Players to Watch

Erie:
Alex DeBrincat: I wanted to stay away from listing DeBrincat here because everyone who follows the OHL knows he is a player to watch. That said he was fantastic against the Sting even if wasnt filling the net himself. His 11 assists in 4 games gave him a 2.75 per game average. He will start putting the puck in the net at a higher frequency the Knights just hope it isnt this series.


London
Cliff Pu: The Knights leading scorer in the regular season with 86 points. He was held to a rather pedestrian 4 points in 7 games vs the Spits. Getting him active and producing will be a key for the Knights in this series and Pu isn't a player you would want to bet on to have 2 mediocre series in a row.


How they got here

Erie:

Erie steamrolled the Sarnia Sting in the 1st round winning in 4 straight. The Sarnia power play had more success against the Otters than they would have liked and that is something that will need to be fixed against London. With the long break some will say the Otters will be rusty, others will say they will be well rested. All I know is they will be ready to face the Knights


Playoff  Power Play: 8 for 23 34.8%
Playoff  Penalty Kill: 9 for 14 64.3%

LDN

London came back from 3-1 down to knock of the Memorial Cup hosts in 7 games. My prediction was wrong as the Spits did not hire a hypnotist to convince DiPietro that the Knights were having a teddy bear toss game on Tuesday and because of that London was able to score 3 goals and win.



Playoff  Power Play: 7 for 27 25.9%
Playoff Penalty Kill: 23 for 29 79.3%

Key's to the Series

ERI

These teams are fairly evenly matched but Erie had the upper hand in the regular season. The Otters will want to keep the pressure on London and put them in a position where they are playing catch up all series. This will help mitigate the chances that Tyler Parsons can steal the series for London.

LDN

Steal a game in Erie early. The Knights were able to come back vs Windsor but that will be a whole lot harder vs the Otters. They must also maintain their discipline and not give DeBrincat and Strome a chance to pick them apart on the power play.

Season Series

Erie 4-2-0
LDN 2-4-0

This season series was dominated by the Otters. The 2 wins London picked up were the virtual Jr B game at the start of the season and a must win game for the Knights near the end of the year to keep their slim chances of a finish higher than 4th alive. Erie out scored London 21-6 in their 4 wins and controlled the games from start to finish. Maybe London can build on that last game in this playoff series but based on the season sample the Otters have a serious edge

Sept 23
ERIE 2 LDN 6
Oct 15
LDN 1 ERIE 7
Jan 27
ERIE 5 LDN 3
Feb 15
LDN 1 ERIE 5
Mar 10
ERIE 4 LDN 1
Mar 14
LDN 3 ERIE 2




Key Numbers

ERIE
.881% That was Troy Timpano's save percentage in the 1st round. Now I will must issua a small sample size (SSS) alert with this as he only played 4 games but at the same time if it is a similiar number vs London then this series will be a whole lot closer than Erie would want it.



LDN:

815: That is the number of penalty minutes the Knights accumulated over the coarse of the regular season. Most among any Western Conference playoff team. As stated earlier they have to stay out of the box if they plan on having any chance vs Erie.


Prediction

After the tradedeadline I was adimant that the Knights on paper were the best team in the OHL. I still feel that on paper they are better than the Otters but the game is played on ice not paper and what I have seen on the ice post deadline has me leaning heavily towards the Otters who I am picking in 5 games

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