Monday 16 October 2017

OHL Power Rankings Week 4

After an almost full week which included 29 OHL games and 18 of the 20 teams playing 3 during the week we are starting to see teams reach the 10 game mark. The standings have its share of expected early contenders as well as a few surprises. The scoring race is also a nice mix of expected leaders and quickly developing surprises. The league continues to crack down on head checks but there has been a surprising amount of slew foot majors. You can check out my suspension tracker here

With less than a month till the OHL vs Russia games some players are making a strong case for inclusion like Attack defender Sean Durzi who has 17 points in 9 games and Greyhounds defender Mac Hollowell who has 12 in 5 games. While draft eligible stars like Akil Thomas and Barret Hayton are among the top forwards in the OHL and deserve a shot at that roster before being a serious WJC threat next year as 18 year olds.

Speaking of the World Junior camp OHL fans should keep an eye on Thursdays match up between Peterbough and Windsor as 2 hopefuls between the pipes will be battling it out as Dylan Wells visits Michael DiPietro.

Speaking of Dipietro the Spits continue to put up good showings. Mind you the 18 year old goalie right now is making a pretty strong case for the OHLs most outstanding player. With a .946 save percentage he is allowing a Spits team that has been outplayed to stay competitive against anyone in the league. It has also allowed the Spits to stay above water as they have gotten Sean Day back and are hoping to get Logan Brown back soon as well. The question is do they move DiPietro now or next season. He is arguably the 1 goalie who would justify an exceedingly large return. In my opinion there are really only 3 teams right now that make sense as potential landing spots for Dipietro and they are Owen Sound, Guelph and Oshawa. Owen Sound obviously would become the overwhelming favourites this year if they picked up DiPietro. They could also move him next year to recoup some of the assets he cost. Guelph and Oshawa make sense because these two teams as of right now have lineups that make them the early favorites for next season. Would they pull the trigger early or wait another year when the cost is a little lower. A dark horse though is Ottawa. They are loaded in picks from 2 years of trading with Sarnia and have an intriguingly competitive lineup but with 2 major questions marks manning the crease for them.

North Bay seems to be falling back to earth after an early hot start. Luke Burghardt was held pointless in 3 games this week and was a -8 after starting the year with 11 points in his first 6 games. The lack of depth in North Bay is starting to become evident with the 2 gut wrenching losses this weekend after blowing 3rd period leads. Between the pipes neither of their goalies have SV% above .860. Cam Dineen is a bonafide super star on the backend and while they have some nice blueline depth among their top 6. Up front however this team will continue to struggle to score goals. They will need to win with defence and will need to get more out of their goaltending.

The Owen Sound Attack are sporting the best power play in the league which shouldnt be a surprise given their talent. 8 players are averaging a point per game for the Attack so far in this young season with 2016 1st round pick Aiden Dundas not far behind with 8 in 9 games. 8 different players have scored power play goals and 11 different players are averaging more than 2 shots per game. The one question mark remains in net. While Zack Bowman has gotten the job done so far he is sporting a .883 save percentage. That could become an issue come playoff time when teams are more evenly matched. Based on how they have played so far this season this Owen Sound team will be a tough team to keep pace with through the season as their depth is enviable to say the least.

In Oshawa a 2-4-1 stretch after an opening weekend sweep has tempered expectations some. Some of that poor stretch can be attributed to starting goalie Kyle Keyser being injured. The offence is still averaging close to 5 goals per game, in fact their 4.77 goals per game has them tied for 3rd in the league. Right now the most likely fix would be ab upgrade at the backup goalie position. One name I threw out last week was Mario Culina who is currently playing for Ryerson University. While an OA backup may not be ideal his memorial cup experience could be a good thing to have in a crease shared with Kyle Keyser. There are no guarantees that he would leave Ryerson and it is just speculation that this is something that Oshawa would look into but this would be a rather prudent fix for Oshawa that will allow them to continue to build for the next 2 seasons.

(1) Sarnia Sting 9-1 Power Rank Percentage (PR%) .8610

The Sting continue to role as they picked up another 6 points on the weekend. Their offence is averaging a healthy 5.1 goals per game which sits them 2nd in the league behind only Owen Sound and their goalies are giving up only 2.5 per game which is the fewest per game. One player whose play seems to have done a 180 is Adam Ruzicka. Usually you see a big improvement in an imports 2nd year in the CHL and Ruzicka is showing that. With 15 points in 10 games he is doubling his points per game from last year but more importantly he is a +12 when he was a -15 last year and is averaging 4.3 shots per game. More comfortable in North America and not just on the ice but with a year to adjust to a new Culture we are seeing a new Adam Ruzicka and the Sting are reaping the benefits.
Games this Week Oct 19 @ NB; Oct 20 @ Sby; Oct 21 @ Bar


(2) Owen Sound Attack 6-1-2 PR% .7615

Owen Sound flexed its offence muscle this weekend scoring 21 goals in 3 games including a 12 goal explosion vs the Oshawa Generals where they victimized the leagues worst penalty kill for 5 goals. We all know the big 3 that returned up front for the Attack this year but one question at the begining of the year was who was going to replace the offence on the blueline that graduated once Santino Centorame finished his OA season? Sean Durzi has answered that question as the 19 year old rearguard has picked up 17 points in 9 games this year and sits 2nd in the OHL in scoring. He has 5 multi point games and points in 8 straight as he helps lead the charge for the leagues best offence.
Games This Week: Oct 21 @ Eri; Oct 22 @ Eri

(3) Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds 7-1-2 PR% .7518

The Greyhounds have points in all games since a season opening loss to Oshawa but like their last OT failure this one felt like a missed opportunity. The Greyhounds led by 2 goals at 3 different points versus Ottawa before finally squandering the lead with less than a minute to go in the 2nd period. They finished with 5 out of 6 points but it should have been more. The Hounds dropped to 2-1-2 vs the East this year and while the East is much stronger this season it is something that needs to be improved. One player who had a strong showing this week and is likely the favourite for player of the week is 19 year old defenceman Mac Hollowell who finished with 8 points in 3 games. The veteren blue liner now has 12 points in 5 games this season. Not bad for a player who had his summer derailed a bit after breaking his fibula at the Maple Leafs prospect camp.
Games this Week: Oct 18 @ Sby; Oct 20 vs Kgn; Oct 22 vs Gue

(4) Barrie Colts 7-2-1 PR% .7365

Ive talked a lot about the stellar play of the Russian players on the Colts roster and the teams struggle with suspensions but on a team with limited depth there is one player who has really stepped up for them this season. That player is former 15th round OHL priority selection pick Lucas Chiodo. His 53 points in 68 games last year alone was fantastic value for a 15th round pick. This season he has stepped it up even more with 14 points in 10 games. His 77 points is most by a 15th round draft pick since Niagara pick Blake Siebenaler finished his OHL career with 96 in 199 career games.
Games This Week: Oct 21 vs Sar; Oct 22 @ OSH

(5) Peterborough Petes 7-2-1 PR% .7291

Gogolev, Der-arguchinstev, Korostelev and Babinsev. The PMC has more Russian influence than the White House and for the Petes it is working out fantastically. After scoring 5 goals in 53 games last year Gogolev has already equaled that in 10 games. Der-Arguchinstev is averaging .6 points per game this year which is an increase over last year. Korostelev has 7 points in 6 games where the Petes are 5-0-1 and Babinsev has adjusted quite well to life in Peterborough with solid play through 10 games for an import rookie. Their upcoming 3 game Western road trip will be an important step for the Petes as they look to take the next step in contender status.
Games This Week: Oct 19 @ Wsr; Oct 21 @ Fli; Oct 22 @ Sag

(6) Niagara Icedogs 6-2-1 PR% .7139

The Icedogs now have points in 4 straight games and if it wasnt for an atrocious 1st period in Erie on Sunday it would likely be 4 straight wins. The young team showed resilience in fighting back and earning the point after spotting the Otters a 4-1 opening period lead. On player who deserves some spotlight is 3rd year forward Ben Jones who 12 points in 9 games this season after a 3 point outburst versus the Otters which was his 2nd 3 point game of the year. Jones has also won 63.5% of his faceoffs this year which is 2nd in the league to Sarnia center Drake Rymsha.
Games This Week: Oct 19 vs Miss; Oct 22 vs Ott

(7) Kitchener Rangers 7-3-1 PR% .6984

After dropping the opening game of their 3 in 3 road trip through Northern Ontario and Michigan on Friday to Sault Ste. Marie the Rangers bounced back and picked up wins in Flint and Saginaw. Connar Bunnaman seems to have found his offensive mojo as he exploded for 7 points (5-2) on the road trip after opening the year with only a pair of assists in 6 games. They get the Knights at home this week who will have some reinforcements as Alex Formenton has been returned by the Ottawa Senators.
Games This Week: Oct 20 vs Ldn; Oct 21 vs Osh

(8) Hamilton Bulldogs 5-1-3 PR% .6808

Since opening the season with a lose the Bulldogs have points in their last 8. All have been 1 goal games except for their 2-0 win over Mississauga. They are starting to score more goals which is a plus. Brandon Saigeon looks to be 100% healthy and is starting to realize the potential he showed that made him a top OHL draft pick. The team showed great resiliency with a pair of 3rd period comebacks on the weekend. With a road game in Guelph and a home game vs Ottawa this week they have a very good chance at continuing their winning ways.
Games This Week: Oct Oct 20 @ Gue; Oct 22 vs Ott

(9) Kingston Frontenacs 5-2-2 PR% .6658

The Fronts had a rough week picking up only 2 out of 6 possible points. 2nd year forward Nathan Dunkley served the first 3 of a 5 game suspension and the team looked stagnant on offence because of it picking up only 6 goals in the 3 games and being out played for most of the weekend. With a Northern Ontario road trip coming up they could be in for another long weekend.
Games This Week: Oct 20 @ SSM; Oct 21 @ Sby; Oct 22 @ North Bay

(10) Windsor Spitfires 6-3-1 PR% .6557

I don't want to keep talking about DiPietro so I will keep his praise short this week. He was stellar once again keeping the Spits in it vs Sarnia and helping them pick up a pair of wins against London including on Saturday night when the Spits were outshot 39-11. When Logan Brown returns given the way the team has played so far you could argue that this team has enough pieces to compete for home ice in the West. With the dearth of talent returning next season though it wont be enough to not sell off. Dipietro, Brown and Day will all fetch big returns but arguable the most intriguing piece is OA captain Aaron Luchuk. The veteran of 216 OHL games picked up his 150th career point this weekend and now has 9 goals and 6 assists on the season. He scores in all situations and is great on the faceoff circle.
Games This Week: Oct 19 vs Pbo; Oct 22 @ Fli

(11) Flint Firebirds  5-3-1 PR% .6246

It was a good week for the Firebirds as they thumped Guelph and Mississauga before playing the Rangers tight, ultimately dropping that game 5-3 after giving up 2 late goals. The Bluejackets have assigned Kole Sherwood to the Firebirds so they have just added an 85 point player for a 2nd round draft pick as per the condition of their original trade with London. Sherwood now gives the Firebirds 5 OAs so you can expect some moves coming up but they have a very strong group of forwards that should allow them to continue to fill the net.
Games This Week: Oct 21 vs PBO; Oct 22 vs Wsr

(12) Ottawa 67's 6-4-1 PR% .5992

The 67s are an interesting team. In their 4 regulation losses they have been outscored 29-5. The other 7 games including their 6 wins have all been 1 goal games including a 4-1 record in extra time. I don't think the issue is all goaltending as their defence seemed overwhelmed at times vs Sault Ste. Marie. They have some young and exciting pieces on their blueline but it seems like they are missing something back there. On big plus I got while watching the 67s is that their forward depth is greater than I expected. They are a fantastic fore checking team and do a great job of applying pressure and taking advantage of their chances. This upcoming week is an interesting gift from the schedule makers. A home game Friday vs Oshawa and then a long bus trip to Niagara the next night for a game against the Icedogs before wrapping up their weekend vs Hamilton.
Games This Week: Oct 20 vs Osh; Oct 21 @ Nia; Oct 22 @ Ham

(13) Oshawa Generals 4-4-1 PR% .5265

The Generals are giving up 5 goals a game this year and have an absolutely atrocious penalty kill. They got victimized for 12 goals vs Owen Sound this weekend. I still feel however that goalie Kyle Keyser has been a bright spot for the Generals. He has a .905 SV% when you take out the Owen Sound thumping and has looked solid in most of his games. It is his first foray into being a number one goalie and has been progressing rather nicely. He is a goalie who should have a firm grip on the starting job.
Games This Week: Oct 20 @ Ott; Oct 21 vs Kit; Oct 22 vs Bar

(14) North Bay Battalion 3-4-2 PR% .4996

What a rough week to be a Battalion fan! First they blow a 2 goal 3rd period lead to Barrie on Saturday by giving up 4 in the final period including a short handed game winner with less than 2 minutes to go. On Sunday they fought back vs Hamilton and took a 3-2 lead before giving up the tying goal with less than 2 minutes to go and the winning goal in the final minute.
Games This Week: Oct 19 vs Sar; Oct 20 @ Miss; Oct 22 vs Kgn

(15) Guelph Storm 3-5-1 PR% .4590
The Guelph Power Play has outscored their opponents 8-4 so far this season. Unfortunately at even strength on on the penalty kill they have been outscored by 16 goals which has led to some rather ugly +/- on the team. This team has the depth to do better at even strength so I have a hard time believing this disparity will be sustained but it is a cause for worry.
Games This Week: Oct 20 vs Ham; Oct 21 @ Sag; Oct 22 @ SSM

(16) Erie Otters 3-6-1 PR% .4367

The Otters picked up a win for the 2nd week in a row. Not sure if it will happen for a 3rd week in a row as they get 2 games vs Owen Sound next weekend. Ivan Lodnia has goals in 4 straight games for the Otters and Kyle Maksimovich is closing in on 200 career OHL points. With 15 goals in their last 4 games it seems the Otters offence is starting to turn the corner.
Games This Week: Oct 21 vs OS; Oct 22 vs OS

(17) Sudbury Wolves 2-6-2 PR% .4079

Dmitry Sokolov seemed to wake up with 4 goals and 2 assist in 2 games this weekend before being a healthy scratch Sunday for disciplinary reasons vs Oshawa. It left a glaring hole in the Wolves lineup and Oshawa cruised to victory. Outside of his 4 point game vs Ottawa this year David Levin has 4 points in his other 9 games this season and is a -7 in those contests.
Games This Week: Oct 18 vs SSM; Oct 20 vs Sar; Oct 21 vs Kgn

(18) Saginaw Spirit 2-5-1 PR% .3761

It was another difficult week for the Spirit. They blew a 3-1 lead vs SSM, blew a 2-1 3rd period lead vs Kitchener, then on Sunday they blew another 2-1 3rd period lead before salvaging their weekend with 2 late goals to reclaim the win. This Spirit team Came out flying in each game outshooting their opponents in the 1st period in each game (21-10, 12-5, 14-8). The hot starts are a positive for sure but they will need to learn how to close better.
Games This Week: Oct 21 vs Gue; Oct 22 vs PBO

(19) Mississauga Steelheads 1-7-0 PR% .2771

The Steelheads Dropped all 3 games this week, a thumping at the hands of Sarnia, a loss to Flint and a missed opportunity vs Saginaw. In all this sets up the OHLs turd cup on Sunday when London comes to visit. On the NHL front they received some bad news as Michael McLeod had knee surgery which will inevitably delay his return to Mississauga. I would expect New Jersey to take their time with his rehab and keep him around as long as possible. Owen Tippet continues to be a healthy scratch for the Panthers so either he will be returned shortly or Steelheads fans will just have to wait longer for his 10 games.
Games This Week: Oct 19 @ Nia; Oct 20 vs NB; Oct 22 vs LDN

(20) London Knights 1-8-1 PR% .2687

The Knights dropped a pair to the Windsor Spitfires although they completely outplayed them in 1 games. They fought back vs Owen Sound on Sunday before ultimately dropping the game in OT. Alex Formenton will be returning this week from Ottawa as the Knights are slowly getting players back from NHL camp. Mete is still the biggest hole in their lineup and his 35 minutes a game will be a big boost if the Canadians return him. Till then Defence and goaltending will continue to be a weakness.
Games This Week: Oct 20 @ Kit; Oct 22 @ Miss

No comments:

Post a Comment