Wednesday 21 March 2018

Western Conference Round 1 Preview (2) Kitchener Rangers vs (7) Guelph Storm

(3) Sarnia vs (6) Windsor

Tale of the Tape

Kitchener Rangers 42-21-3-1

Head Coach
Jay McKee (2nd Season)

Team Leaders

Adam Mascherin picked up 86 points in 67 games this year falling 4 points shy of the 300 mark on his career. It has come out that he has informed the Florida Panthers that he will not sign with them. If they can not find a taker for his rights he will be playing to impress teams for the upcoming NHL draft.

Logan Brown picked up 24 points in 17 games with Rangers and hit the 200 career point mark near the end of the season. He has 0 goals in 12 career playoff games with the Spitfires which is somewhat concerning but it wont take much for him to find his groove and make that stat look like an anomoly

Joseph Garreffa picked up 65 points in 68 games this year as the pint sized swiss army knife absolutely carved up the Storm this season. His versatility gives the Rangers great flexibility in the playoffs and allows them to throw multiple looks at their opponents.

Playoff Expierience
This Rangers team surprisingly only has 134 games of OHL playoff expierience. That said they have 3 skaters who were on the Memorial Cup winning Windsor Spitfires last season plus goalie Mario Culina was a back up. Kole Sherwood had a part time role on the London Knights OHL winning team from 2016 as well.

Scoring Leaders vs Guelph
Joseph Garreffa   1G  10A
Adam Mascherin  5G  4A
Adam Liska          3G  5A

Team Averages
Goals Per Game 246 (4th in West) 3.62
Goals Allowed Per game 218 (4th in West) 3.21
Power Play 20.7%
Penalty Kill 82.9%
Special Teams Plus Minus -1
Age: 18.48 (5th)
Height 184cm (10th)
Weight 83.37 (9th)

What to Watch for
The 3 Stars. Based on the reaction to the 3 stars by Kitchener media this team needs lots of positive reinforcement. If they dont get a single nod in the 3 stars could it derail the whole locker room?

It wont be an issue in round 1 but Kitchener will need to play better on the special teams. They were a -1 on special teams this year as they gave up more power play and short handed goals than they scored themselves.

Guelph Storm 30-29-5-4

Head Coach
George Burnett (1st season with Guelph)

Team Leaders
Isaac Ratcliffe 68 points in 67 games. The Flyers 2nd round pick was the Storms leading scorer averaging over a point per game. He was particularly dangerous on the power play where he added 24 points and led the storm with 282 shots this season

Ryan Merkley picked up 67 points in 63 games for the Storm. More than half of his points came on the power play as he added 2 goals and 32 assists on the man advantage. His 32 assists on the PP led all OHLers

Playoff Experience
2 straight years of missing the playoffs and the Storm roster only has 70 games of OHL expierience. Leading the way is Zach Porier who has 25 career games with the Battalion. In fact 54 of the 70 games of experience comes with other OHL franchises.

Scoring Leaders vs Kitchener
Ryan Merkley    2G 9A
Isaac Ratcliffe    5G  3A
James McEwan   4G  4A
Cam Hillis          3G  4A


Team Averages
Goals Per Game 228 (6th in the west) 3.35
Goals Allowed Per game 263 (8th in the west) 3.87
Power Play 22.2%
Penalty Kill 79.7%
Special Teams Plus Minus +14
Age: 18.10 (15th)
Height: 185.55cm (5th)
Weight: 84.6kg (4th)

What to Watch for
The Storm enter the playoffs with the 2nd worst GF% in the western conference. On special teams the are actually outscoring their opponents so most of Guelphs issues can be found by looking at their play 5 on 5.
Popovich has exceeded expectations this season but even if he plays at a Michael DiPietro level the Storm are not getting past the Rangers.
With an important OHL draft coming up for the Storm it will be intersting to see how George Burnett juggles is multiple duties within the organization as they will need a hell of a game plan to even steal 1 game let alone 4

Season Series
Kitchener 5-2-1
Guelph 3-4-1
Oct 7
KIT 2 @ GUE 5
Nov 3
GUE 1 @ KIT 4
Nov 17
Gue 5 @ KIT 7
Dec 10
KIT 10 @ GUE 3
Jan 21
GUE 2 @ KIT 4
Mar 4
KIT 5 @ GUE 4 OT
Mar 13
KIT 3 @ GUE 4 OT
Mar 16
GUE 6 @ KIT 3

Playoff History
These teams have met 3 times in the 20 team era of the OHL in the playoffs. The Rangers have won the last 2 meetings one being in the opening round (2012-13) and in the 2nd round (2002-03) The Storms only victory was a 1st round sweep in 2001-02 the year they hosted the Memorial Cup

Series Schedule
Game 1, Fri., March 23 at Kitchener – 7:30 p.m.
Game 2, Sun., March 25 at Kitchener – 7:00 p.m.
Game 3, Tues., March 27 at Guelph – 7:00 p.m.
Game 4, Wed., March 28 at Guelph – 7:00 p.m.
Game 5, Fri., March 30 at Kitchener – 7:30 p.m.
Game 6, Sun., April 1 at Guelph – 2:00 p.m.
Game 7, Tues., April 3 at Kitchener – 7:00 p.m.

Prediction
I cant see any scenario where Guelph wins this series. They have some intriging pieces but they do not have an intriging team. Anything beyond a sweep should be considered a success for the Storm

Kitchener in 4

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